1, Conformal geometry of statistical manifold with application to sequential estimation

Masayuki Kumon, Akimichi Takemura, Kei Takeuchi

(Submitted on 17 Feb 2011)

Abstract: We present a geometrical method for analyzing sequential estimating procedures. It is based on the design principle of the second-order efficient sequential estimation provided in Okamoto, Amari and Takeuchi (1991). By introducing a dual conformal curvature quantity, we clarify the conditions for the covariance minimization of sequential estimators. These conditions are further elabolated for the multidimensional curved exponential family. The theoretical results are then numerically examined by using typical statistical models, von Mises-Fisher and hyperboloid models.

2, A definition of conditional probability distribution with non-stochastic information

Pier Giovanni Bissiri, Stephen G. Walker

(Submitted on 17 Feb 2011)

Abstract: The current definition of a conditional probability distribution enables one to update probabilities only on the basis of stochastic information. This paper provides a definition for conditional probability distributions with non-stochastic information. The definition is derived as a solution of a decision theoretic problem, where the information is connected to the outcome of interest via a loss function. We shall show that the Kullback-Leibler divergence plays a central role. Some illustrations are presented.